The toll of the opioid epidemic has been staggering.
- “In 2015, the amount of opioids prescribed was enough for every American to be medicated around the clock for three weeks.”
- From 1999 to 2017, more than 702,000 people died from a drug overdose. Nearly 68 percent involved a prescription or illicit opioid.
- 10.3 million people misused prescription opioids in 2018.
- An estimated 40 percent of opioid overdose deaths involved a prescription opioid.
Early research suggest the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the opioid epidemic.
- The American Medical Association found “more than 40 states have reported increases in opioid-related mortality as well as ongoing concerns for those with a mental illness or substance use disorder in counties and other areas within the state.”
- According to the Overdose Detection Mapping Application Program, which collects real-time overdose numbers nationally, suspected overdoses rose almost 18 percent after stay-at-home orders were implemented across the country in mid-March, compared with the early 2020 period before the pandemic struck.
Other key data points:
- Research by the CDC suggests people can become addicted in as few as five days.
- Overall, overdose and abuse are still relatively rare in these opioid-prescribed populations (~0.7 percent), so using simple filtering rules would be insufficient to capture abuse and overdose cases.
That’s why I’m thrilled to share the news about Geneia’s model to predict opioid abuse and overdose.
For those who have received at least one opioid prescription, the Geneia Data Intelligence Lab (GDI Lab) model*+ predicts that person’s likelihood of an opioid abuse diagnosis or an overdose in the coming six months. Evaluated on several independent datasets, Geneia’s predictive model accurately identified 80 to 88 percent of the people who are likely to have an opioid abuse diagnosis or an overdose event in the next six months.
Geneia’s opioid model is unique. Geneia’s model:
- Uses 22 variables whereas others use as many as 200 data points to achieve comparable predictive accuracy. Fewer variables make it easier to explain the model’s results to physicians and their patients.
- Combines the likelihood of an opioid abuse diagnosis and an overdose event. Many models identify one of those outcomes.
- Can be used with children and adolescents. Opioid models typically are created for people age 18 or older.
To learn more about Geneia’s opioid abuse and overdose model, download the case study.
*Certain data used in this study were supplied by International Business Machines Corporation. Any analysis, interpretation, or conclusion based on these data is solely that of the authors and not International Business Machines Corporation.
+Predictive models, by their very nature, contain certain assumptions. This is not an attempt to practice medicine or provide specific medical advice, and it should not be used to make a diagnosis or to replace or overrule a qualified healthcare provider's judgment.