Geneia’s opioid model identifies 80% of people likely to have abuse diagnosis or overdose event
October 27, 2020
Harrisburg, PA – Geneia, a healthcare analytic solutions and services company that is simplifying the transition to value-based care, announced its opioid predictive model*+ accurately identified 80 percent of the people who are likely to have an opioid abuse diagnosis or an overdose event in the next six months. For those who have received at least one opioid prescription, Geneia’s model predicts that person’s likelihood of an opioid abuse diagnosis or an overdose, enabling healthcare organizations to intervene and proactively change the therapeutic course, preventing the deleterious outcomes associated with opioid misuse.
Geneia’s opioid model is unique. Geneia’s model:
- Uses 22 variables whereas others use as many as 200 data points to achieve comparable predictive accuracy. Fewer variables make it easier to explain the model’s results to physicians and their patients.
- Combines the likelihood of an opioid abuse diagnosis and an overdose event. Many models identify one of those outcomes.
- Can be used with children and adolescents. Opioid models typically are created for people age 18 or older.
By any measure, the toll of the opioid epidemic has been staggering, and early research suggests the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the opioid epidemic:
- Research by the CDC suggests people can become addicted in as few as five days.
- “In 2015, the amount of opioids prescribed was enough for every American to be medicated around the clock for three weeks.”
- From 1999 to 2017, more than 702,000 people died from a drug overdose. Nearly 68 percent involved a prescription or illicit opioid. An estimated 40 percent of opioid overdose deaths involved a prescription opioid.
- The American Medical Association found “more than 40 states have reported increases in opioid-related mortality as well as ongoing concerns for those with a mental illness or substance use disorder in counties and other areas within the state,” during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure,” said Fred Rahmanian, Geneia chief analytics and technology officer. “Knowing in advance who is at high-risk for an opioid abuse diagnosis or overdose enables physicians to choose alternative pain management strategies.”
Orthopedic surgeons are the third-highest prescribers of opioid medication, according to the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons. ‘From 2014 to 2017, the proportion of patients who received an opioid prescription within 60 days of discharge increased from 81.9 to 91.5 percent after total knee replacement and 82.0 to 89.7 percent after total hip replacement.’ Now, orthopedic practices can choose to use Geneia’s opioid predictive model to flag patients expected to experience opioid misuse and direct them to alternative pain remedies. Similarly, primary care practices can use the model to flag potential high-risk patients at the point of care, as an opioid prescription is being written.
To learn more about Geneia’s opioid predictive model, read the case study: Geneia Data Intelligence Lab: Predicting Opioid Overdose and Abuse.
*Certain data used in this study were supplied by International Business Machines Corporation. Any analysis, interpretation, or conclusion based on these data is solely that of the authors and not International Business Machines Corporation.
+Predictive models, by their very nature, contain certain assumptions. This is not an attempt to practice medicine or provide specific medical advice, and it should not be used to make a diagnosis or to replace or overrule a qualified healthcare provider's judgment.
Geneia LLC is a healthcare analytics and services company. We work to improve collaboration between healthcare providers, health plans and employers to better support personalized, patient-centered care. Through advanced technology, education and training, insights and clinical services, we help clients better identify and actively manage high-risk populations, improve quality measurement and outcomes, and strengthen revenue. Rooted in deep clinical experience and leading-edge data science, our client-centric, phased approach to population health simplifies the transition to risk and value-based care. Our offices are located in Harrisburg, PA and Manchester, NH. To learn more, visit Geneia.com (https://www.geneia.com) or connect with us on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.